Alzheimer's disease: study on substances to slow disease

The results obtained in pre-clinical researchers from the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia (Italy) open hopes in the treatment of disease: hydrogen sulfide and the melanocortin would be able to slow the progression of the Alzheimer's disease.

From the results of research done by the Modena group, coordinated by Salvatore Guarini, Professor of Pharmacology at the Department of Biomedical Sciences, Metabolic and Neuroscience, hydrogen sulphide and melanocortins are able to slow the progression of Alzheimer's disease.

Alzheimer's disease is the most common cause of dementia, and without effective treatment, one of the major causes of disability and mortality. Alzheimer's disease is usually diagnosed after the age of 65, while the form of Alzheimer's disease less prevalent, that family or genetic disease, can occur much earlier.

The interest of the international scientific community for the originality of the results and the methodological rigor of the studies Modena are witnessed by the relief that gave them the international publications: Neurobiology of Learning and Memory and Neurobiology of Aging, some of the most prestigious magazines. The studies were carried out in three preclinical experimental models, including a triple-transgenic with characteristics very similar to those of Alzheimer's human.

The treatment, short and long term, a guinea pig animal with sodium monohydrogensulphide  and thermal waters rich in hydrogen sulphide (thermal waters of Tabiano) significantly protected against cognitive decline.

"Hydrogen sulfide is an important signaling molecule produced by the body and present in various body compartments including the brain, probably with a protective physiological role," explained Daniela Giuliani, who participated in the studies. "An alteration of the endogenous levels of hydrogen sulfide - he continued - is correlated with various diseases of central and peripheral, and some recent studies have documented that plasma and brain levels of this molecule are quite low in patients with Alzheimer's disease. This prompted us to investigate, in a project funded by the Foundation for Scientific Thermal Research , on a possible therapeutic action of hydrogen sulphide exogenous in this chronic neurodegenerative disease. "

"Even the melanocortins are endogenous substances ( which belong to the family ACTH / MSH), and the general idea is that the melanocortins have oversight functions and functional regulation of various organs and systems ," said Guarini . " In sporadic studies , carried out many years ago by different groups, were observed low levels of ACTH / MSH in the CSF and some areas of the brain of patients with dementia - he continued - probably correlated with the disease. In our study in the mouse triple - transgenic we have clearly shown that melanocortin induce beneficial effects in Alzheimer's disease . Moreover, our previous and current studies on melanocortin suggest that these endogenous substances may have an important protective role against several neurodegenerative disorders both acute and chronic , where many pathophysiological mechanisms leading to neuronal death or repairing the damage are common . "

The U.S. GDP Growth Accelerates in Second Quarter, doesn't it ?

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) asserts [here]: 

"Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 1.7 percent in the second quarter of 2013 after increasing 1.1 percent in the first quarter, according to the “advance” estimate released today [July 31, 2013] by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)." 

One would say that the reported growth of the annualized estimate of the U.S. GDP (+1.7%) outperforms the expected result. 

We recall that the official GDP is calculated at constant prices, i.e, by applying a deflator to the current values. 

In practice, it takes account of the specific rate of inflation in the components of GDP. Obviously the lower the GDP deflator the higher the GDP.

Well, the deflator used by the BEA for the second quarter was a tiny +0.71% whilst in the first quarter it was +1.7% and in the last 14 quarters, the U.S. GDP deflator was +1.75% on average.

It sounds a bit odd !

If the GDP deflator were what the market was expecting (i.e., +1.6%), the U.S. GDP would grow in the second quarter only by 0.8% annualized (i.e., just a faint +0.2% quarter-on-quarter). 

Ocular-Motor Profile and Effects of Memantine in a Familial Form of Adult Cerebellar Ataxia with Slow Saccades and Square Wave Saccadic Intrusions

This study [here] suggests that memantine may have some general suppressive effect on saccadic intrusions, including both square wave intrusions (SWI)  and macrosaccadic oscillations (MSO), thereby restoring the capacity of reading and visual attention in these and in other recessive forms of ataxia, including Friedreich’s, in which saccadic intrusions are prominent.  

Two patients (two sisters with identical phenotype) with an unrecognized, probably recessive hereditary form of adult-onset cerebellar ataxia clinically characterized by axonal sensory neuropathy, cerebellar atrophy, slow saccades and prominent square wave intrusions, have been treated with the drug memantine, which is an uncompetitive antagonist of the NMDA-receptor (NMDAR) [1]. The aim was to suppress frequent and large saccadic intrusions. 

Fixation instability due to saccadic intrusions is a feature of autosomal recessive spinocerebellar ataxias, and SWI and MSO. A recent report suggested that the non-competitive antagonist of NMDA receptors, memantine, could decrease MSO and improve fixation in patients with spinocerebellar ataxia with saccadic intrusions (SCASI). 

Horizontal visually guided saccades (10°–18°) and three minutes of steady fixation in each patient and in thirty healthy controls have been tested.
Both patients showed a significant reduction of peak and mean velocity compared with control subjects. Large SWI interrupting steady fixation were prominent during steady fixation and especially following visually guided saccades. Eye movements were recorded before and during the treatment with memantine, 20 mg/daily for 6 months. 

The treatment with memantine reduced both the magnitude and frequency of SWI (the former significantly), but did not modified neurological conditions or saccade parameters. 

PERSPECTIVES ON DETROIT

The failure of Detroit can not go unnoticed. The main causes and potential side effects have been reported [here] and [here].

Let's see now the point of view of professor Stephen Cohen.  

Stephen Cohen teaches economics at the University of Berkeley [1]. Specialist of urban economy and territory, after the failure of the city of Detroit answers some questions at the information portal Liberation.fr [here].


1. What is the importance of this failure of American scale?

It 's the worst failure of a local authority ever made in the United States from the years of the Second World War. The debt of the city is 20 billion dollars. A considerable sum, but it is not a surprise.
Once Detroit was the fourth largest city in the country. Since 1950, has lost half of its inhabitants. Today it has 700,000, versus 1.8 million over fifty years ago. They were the poorest, with a population of color equal to 80%.
The real estate industry has collapsed, as well as tax revenue. The debt has entered a spiral such that today the city is put under the protection of Chapter 9.

It was inevitable, the city did not even have the means to keep the power grid, with half the lights out at night and use many neighborhoods in the dark. Since 2008 he has been closed half of the city's parks.

2. What are the consequences after this failure?

The indebtedness of the municipality has created two problems. On the one hand, the city could no longer cope with the payment of interest on loans from municipal bonds that had issued on a local debt market absolutely colossal.
It's an interesting system: to allow the community to attract investors, the Federal State does not levy any tax on interest. On the other hand, Detroit has been stifled by the payment of pensions and services to its officials.


Now the question is to know who will pay. Will the investors have to shoulder the losses through the partial reduction of the debt and its renovation? Or will they be pensioners and officials of the municipality who will pay the heaviest toll, accepting pensions revised downwards and cuts in wages?
In other words, the failure of Detroit will be absorbed by the markets or by city officials? You may think that both will go to the cashier, but the question is to know in what proportion.

In the case of a debt restructuring, there is the risk of destabilizing the whole of the municipal bond market.

How will the holders of claims in the other municipalities behave? Will they sell​​? On the other hand it is unthinkable that the markets do not take part in the rescue of Detroit. An extreme possibility is that the State of Michigan will take on the debt; legally possible but I do not think that this will happen.

3. What about the racial and political dimension of this failure?

The State of Michigan is mostly white and Republican, while Detroit is black and democratic. From this point of view there are potential conflicts between the two parties.

For example, the "black and democratic" municipality had the jurisdiction maintenance of the Detroit Institute of Art, while those who went to see the works of art were mostly the "white Republicans" who live outside the city. So who will pay?

4. Why Detroit is bankrupt even though the industry was coming up, after a deep crisis?

Today in the city remain two or three car factories. The others are located in the Detroit region, which represents a pool of assets of 5 million inhabitants and is located in the best conditions of the city.

Since this region has seen something of a renaissance, especially with the return of General Motors, perhaps the city can start again from this area, but on condition that put its finances in order. Reorganization that has already begun, since a crisis manager has been appointed to replace the mayor and the city council.

5. Detroit will rise again?

We read a lot about the fact that many young people invest in Detroit attracted by a real estate close to zero cost, which begin to create businesses, new activities, etc..

A new opportunity after a deep crisis. Detroit is not doomed to failure, and this must be seen as a new starting point. 

SIDE EFFECTS OF THE FAILURE OF DETROIT

The financial failure of the city of Detroit [here] will also have consequences on some European banks, exposed towards the debt contracted by the American metropolis.

Among the banks involved there is also UBS: in 2005 the bank was handling the sale of $ 1.4 billion of municipal bonds. Operations conducted on behalf of the administration of Detroit, to enable it to finance its pension fund.

Similar operations involving other banks - for a total of another billion dollars - and these include many institutions that already live in conditions of difficulty.
As in the case of the "bad bank" of Hypo Real Estate, which is the most exposed with $ 200 million, to Commerzbank, which owns a total of 4.5 billion euro in American local governments, or Deutsche Bank, not involved however excessively.

DETROIT BANKRUPTCY

And so Detroit has gone bankrupt. 

The news of the failure of a (former) major American city, an event of far greater importance than that of the city of San Bernardino (CA), the Boise County (IH) or Jefferson County (AL). The greater severity of the failure of Detroit stems not only from total size of the debt, but also the origin of the structural debt: while in other cases the trigger for the crisis was a limited negative event, such as severe errors in the management of the debt or investment, in the case of Detroit instead the causes are structural and inherent in the evolution of the city itself.

Demographic decline. The city went from having 1,849,000 inhabitants in 1950 to just over 700,000 today. Pretty much the city has had a reduction of two thirds of the inhabitants. Why do people have fallen so substantially?

The City's economy was based on a  single industry.

Detroit was the city of cars, home of the three majors of the automotive industry and a large part of the production plants. Since the fifties, however, the manufacturers have decentralized before in other U.S. cities and then abroad. Lost its productive heart of the city has lost jobs and identity, as shown in the splendid "Gran Torino" Clint Eastwood. The 2007 crisis has dealt a fatal blow to the city because the companies, saved thanks to the state aid, have not reopened plants in the city, if not in small part. Any comparison with Turin and the Fiat is natural.

High rate of crime and inefficiency in Public services. The city is the second most dangerous in the United States, with a murder rate of 54 per 100,000 inhabitants. If you call the police in detroit, it takes an average of 58 minutes before seeing a patrol, 11 minutes against the U.S. national average, while the rate of solved crimes in the city is only 8.7%, compared to 30% of the state's Michigan of which it forms part. With a situation of insecurity similar, although slightly improved in recent years, there is no doubt that those who can go away from the city. Next to the police, the other public services are insufficient: only 33% of ambulances in service, while 40% of public lighting is faulty. 
Empty buildings. 78,000 buildings are abandoned in the city. There are areas where even more than 50% of the buildings are no longer inhabited. Their prices collapsed, and not inhabited buildings do not generate tax nor wealth. 
High unemployment rate. The city has an unemployment rate of 18%. This unemployment is not only due to the crisis in the automotive industry but also to the difficulty of relocation of unemployed people with lower level of education. Without education there is no work.
Investment cuts. When the financial crisis started to hit, investment expenditures, rather than unproductive expenditure, have been cut. This has meant that public services were less efficient and more expensive than the average American city. A wrong policy of cuts leads to disaster in the medium term.
Number of pensioners. In the USA, public pension funds are paid by the cities themselves. In this case the pensions of former employees of the city of Detroit are paid by the city itself. The demographic crisis has made these transfers intolerable. It is no coincidence that the first two creditors of the city are the pension funds of civil servants and police. Despite the appointment of a Commissioner ad hoc has not been able to reach an agreement with the managers of these pension funds to reduce transfers, for which the city went bankrupt, a procedure which allows to re-examine the transfers. It is no coincidence that the pension fund managers were opposed to the declaration of insolvency, which would significantly reduce the transfers and thus the benefits for retirees. This shows that any social security benefit it needs the support of the production system and consistency with demographic trends.
Ethical decline. The city has also had episodes of blatant corruption and embezzlement. Suffice it to recall that the previous mayor was arrested in March for 24 federal crimes, including racketeering, extortion, tax evasion and corruption. Already in 2008 the mayor had been convicted of other criminal charges.

The coffers of the central banks are empty. The collapse of the price of gold has been planned

Eric Sprott, fund manager [1], argues that the current collapse in the value of gold has been long planned by the central banks of the United States and Europe, to take advantage of low prices and fill bullion safes now empty.

According to Sprott, the coffers of Western central banks are empty and since the news should not have been disclosed, here that was organized a reduction in demand for gold in a very short period of time. At first brokers and western commercial banks have advised clients to sell gold. The institutions themselves have held their positions 'short' bearish on the COMEX. When bidding for the benchmark price of the precious metal has surged, the statements about a reduction in the extent of monetary easing measures by the helmsmen of the lead institutions did the rest, driving down the prices. 

Speculators such as hedge funds have opened an avalanche of short positions, futures markets have suffered a blow on the metal and gold stocks are at all-time lows. A global operation to increase the supply and to keep down the levels of demand. 

But now the central banks no longer have a way to still get off the price. Given the still high demand for bullion and the shortage on the supply side, Sprott believes that behind the collapse of temporary gold there was a hand of Western central banks. Have flooded the Compex (the market is not physical gold) and then rake ingots from other sources available at low prices. A clear signal that central banks are running out of gold.

ECONOMIC RECOVERY IS KEPT WAITING IN ITALY

Bank of Italy announced [Economic Bulletin No. 69] that the country is  facing a new record for the general government debt in May that reaches € 2.0746 trillion, an increase of € 33.4 billion from the previous month, and about  €100 of May 2012.

In the first five months of 2013, the tax revenue totaled 143.171 billion euro, 0.7% more than in January-May 2012.

The increase in the public debt, mainly reflects the increase of € 20.4 billion in cash of the Treasury (which reached € 62.4 billion, compared to € 35.8 in the month of May of 2012) and the general government borrowing requirement of the month (€ 11.5 billion).

In May, the share of the Italy of the EFSF loans was € 2.9 billion (in total this share has reached € 30.9 billion).

In the first five months of the year the increase in debt (€ 86.1 billion) largely reflects the requirements of the government (€ 58.1 billion) and the increase in cash and cash equivalents of the Treasury (€ 28.0 billion).

The growth of debt in the first five months of 2013 has contributed to the support of almost 7 billion euro area countries in difficulty (including the portion attributable to Italy of loans from the European Financial Stability Facility EFSF, equal to 4 billion, and the payment made in April of the third tranche for subscription to the capital of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM; € 2.9 billion). This support has reached a total of €49.5 billion.

Bank of Italy also revises downwards its estimates of GDP, which in 2013 is expected to contract by 1.9% and not 1% as estimated in January, then return to "grow at a moderate pace" in 2014 with a 0.7 %. "But on the timing and intensity of recovery weigh the risks of increases in spreads on government bonds"


Conclusions:

• It 's true that most of the increase in debt is related to the increase of cash and contributions to countries in trouble, but also the basic component linked to the financial requirement increases, and this trend appears to be incompatible with a deficit 3% at year-end.
• The cumulated public debt sets the historical record and its growing trend will not change without structural shocks. The structural shocks may be of two types:

•                 A partial default on government bonds.
•                 A measure affecting the assets, mainly housing and / or                         a loan / compulsory levy on capital.
• These measures should involve a huge sum in order to bring the debt / GDP ratio between 100 and 110%,  (undoubtedly a long way, from the current level of 132%).

The temptation to collect fifty billion, which is very difficult these days, probably this time would be insufficient, as it is intended solely to delay for one year a measure even more painful. 

GLOBAL WARMING: LONG TERM ANALYSIS

The Obama Administration is trying to enhance environment-friendly policy decisions [1]. 

"President Obama has announced a series of executive actions to reduce carbon pollution, prepare the U.S. for the impact of climate change and lead international efforts to address global climate change." [here]

This sentence confirms the turn of the U.S. policy on the environment protection issue. It focuses on the carbon pollution, states the condition of climate change (fait accompli) and the necessity for making all the efforts for dealing with the future consequences, and finally raises the U.S. as a leader-country in this "battle".

Implicitly, the information which it conveys, sounds as if there exists a direct relationship between the emission of carbon dioxide and the global climate change, where global climate change stands for global warming [here]

Therefore, by controlling the carbon pollution one would expect the lowering of the global temperature. 

Let's see if this assumption is grounded. 

1. AIR TEMPERATURE ANOMALY

In the collective unconscious, the environmental scenario in the next decades will be marked by ever growing  global temperatures. The currently spread  information foresee structural break in the dynamics of the climate. 

"A new federal report reveals alarming statistics on climate change. According to the 3rd National Climate Assessment, released in draft form today from the U.S. Global Change Research Program, the world could warm by more than 12°F by the end of the century if action isn’t taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. “The evidence is clear and mounting,” said WRI’s president, Andrew Steer, in response to the report. “The United States sits at the center of the climate crisis. Record heat is devastating crops, rivers are drying up, and storms are bearing down on our cities. Climate change is taking its toll on people and their economies, and will only become more intense without a strong and rapid response here in the United States and around the globe. It’s not too late to take action, but given lags in policy and geophysical processes, the window is closing.” - [...See more at]

But what do really the data tell us ?

Figure1 tracks the anomalies of the global near-surface air temperature in the period 1850-2013. The source of data is the HadCRUT4 [download data sets here] which is provided by the Hadley Centre of the UK Meteorological office and the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia.

The Hadley Centre of the UK Meteorological office and the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia have since 1989 jointly maintained a global surface temperature record, HadCRUT. The current version of this record, HadCRUT3, is very widely cited in the academic literature (currently around 900 citations), and provides a record of combined land and ocean temperatures running back to 1850. The dataset is updated monthly to provide a continuous snapshot of the state of the climate.

Recently a new version of the record, HadCRUT4, has been released running to December 2010, with monthly updates planned in future. This update is a response to several factors. [...See more at].

Figure 1. Global near-surface air temperature anomalies (1850-2013). Time series are presented as temperature anomalies (C°) relative to 1961-1990.

The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value. Absolute estimates of global average surface temperature are difficult to compile for several reasons. Some regions have few temperature measurement stations (e.g., the Sahara Desert) and interpolation must be made over large, data-sparse regions. In mountainous areas, most observations come from the inhabited valleys, so the effect of elevation on a region’s average temperature must be considered as well. For example, a summer month over an area may be cooler than average, both at a mountain top and in a nearby valley, but the absolute temperatures will be quite different at the two locations. The use of anomalies in this case will show that temperatures for both locations were below average.[See also...]. Since 1979, apart from the 1985 data [2], we note the ramping of the temperature anomaly in the positive area. This roughly marks the beginning of the recent period of global warming, after termination of the previous period of global cooling (from 1940). The red thick line is the three years moving average that shows the stop raising of the curve since 2010. 

2. THE GREENLAND ICE SHEET TEMPERATURE vs. THE ATMOSPHERIC   CARBON DIOXIDE: THE INDUSTRIAL AGE

Some studies [2-4] have reported the positive correlation  between the Northern Hemisphere temperature anomaly and the Greenland ice sheet temperature. 

"Climate influences the Greenland ice sheet mass budget which in turns exerts a significant influence on global sea level and thermoaline circulation." [2]

Here the link to the data from the GISP2 project (Greenland Ice Sheet Project) that estimate the temperature across the Holocene Age. 

The increased greenhouse is considered as the major responsible for the global and Northern Hemisphere warming in the period 1975-2007, whilst the Northern Hemisphere cooling during 1940-1970 has been attributed to the effect of sulfate aerosol cooling and partly to decreasing solar activity in that period.  

During the 1881-2006 period Greenland ice sheet temperature variations are correlated with the Northern Hemisphere anomalies (r=0.658). 

The past CO2 atmospheric content comes from the World Data Center for Paleoclimatology and NOAA Paleoclimatology Program: (see Monnin, E., et al. 2004). [5]

 [here the data]:  EPICA Dome C Ice Core High Resolution Holocene and Transition CO2 Data. 

Data from 1950 up to present have been filled with the updated records. 

Figure2. Air Temperature at the Greenland Summit vs. Antarctica Atmospheric CO2 (industrial age).  

The plots of Figure 2 focus on the industrial age (i.e., by the end of the XVIII century).
The left panel draws the air temperature of the Greenland Summit ice sheet as reconstructed by Alley (2000) [6] from the GISP2 data. The right panel describes the evolution of the carbon dioxide content (parts per million, ppm) in the atmosphere in  Antarctica [7]. 

Figure 3. Location of the Greenland Summit Observatory. 

The Greenland Environmental Observatory - GEOSummit, [web site link] on the Summit of the Greenland ice sheet (updated coordinates: 72.5796° N, 38.4592° W) at 3216 m above sea level gathers data of  the Greenland arctic environment. It was established in 1989 by the Danish Commission for Scientific Research and the US National Science Foundation. 

In Figure 4 the same data have been standardized, therefore we can easily observe how they track similar patterns across the considered period

Figure 4. Air Temperature at the Greenland Summit vs. Antarctica Atmospheric CO2 (industrial age): standardized data.

The blue curve represents the temperature data and the red curve the carbon dioxide time series. 
Because of the increasing of CO2 in the last 250 years may be directly related to the human industrial activities, Figure 3 seems to support the hypothesis that there exists a close relationship between global warming and CO2 emissions. In the last decades the CO2 level in standard deviation units has showed an exponential growth with respect to the average of the period and the temperature mean deviation seems to follow the same rate of growth as the CO2.    

The Bland-Altman plot (Figure 5) allows to analyze those patterns seemingly driven by the CO2 dynamics. The mean between the two standardized times series for each time is reported on the abscissa. The difference between the standardized temperature and the standardized CO2 level is reported on the ordinate axis.  Data are spaced out by ten years. 

Figure 5. Air temperature variations vs. CO2 variations: Bland-Altman plot (Industrial Age).




Denoting by SD the standard deviation of the difference between the standardized time series, we can trace in the plot the green shaded area, at ±1.96SD around the mean difference (d = -0.02072). This area corresponds to the "neutral" range where  the differences (bias) between the two standardized time series are not significant. The  points falling outside the green area are to be considered outliers. 
All the points apart from the one representing the present time (the red dot), fall in the neutral area. So, the last decade would be characterized by the reversal of the downward trend signed by the previous ten decades. The anomaly stands out from the fact that in the last decade the deviation of the temperature from its average over the whole period of 250 years is significantly greater than the increasing deviation of the CO2 emission from its average in the same period. Hence, the temperature would have overreacted to the increasing CO2 emission. This results seems to be consistent with the theory according to which the crossing of some threshold in the CO2 emission would cause change points in the dynamics of the global temperature. Structural changes in the climate dynamics are known as 
tipping points whose effects impact at a rate and intensity greater than the  changes currently being observed in the climate system.  

"A tipping point occurs when the climate system is forced to cross some threshold, triggering a translation to a new state at a rate determined by the climate system itself and faster than the cause." [8]

Professor James E. Hansen (Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at the Columbia University, New York) asserts that 350 parts per million (ppm) is the upper limit of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, therefore a tipping point has already been reached in 2008 (385ppm) [here the paper].      


2. THE GREENLAND ICE SHEET TEMPERATURE vs. THE ATMOSPHERIC   CARBON DIOXIDE UNDER ANOTHER PERSPECTIVE: FAR IN THE PAST. THE HOLOCENE EPOCH.

All the considerations on the climate variations that we have seen up to now are based on a temporal refererence of at most 250 years. This period would correspond to about 10 generations, which is a relatively long interval from a human point of view. But it is absolutely insufficient for explaining possible tipping points in the climate, whilst oscillations and large variations and succession of glacial and interglacial periods may be observed across the eras. 

Figure 6. Global temperature anomaly over the ages.  
Source: the Vostok Ice Core Data [download here].

The plot shows the global temperature over the last 422000 years as differences from the modern average temperature (the horizontal dotted line). Glacial eras had occurred around every 100000 years and the last ice age ended around 11000 years ago. The current interglacial period is called Holocene epoch (that is pointed out in the red rectangle).

It is worth pointing out that in the previous interglacial periods the global temperature had been higher on average (from 1 C° to 3 C°) than in the present. 


Figure 7. Temperature at the Greenland Summit ice sheet: Holocene Epoch.

The time course of the air temperature over the Holocene epoch estimated from the Greenland Summit ice sheet data. A relatively fast jump of the temperature characterized the beginning of the period as consequence of the recover from the previous ice age. The coloured areas represent the historical ages from 3000 B.C. to the fall of the Roman Empire (green), from 476 A.C. to 1760 A.C. (yellow), industrial age from 1760 up to present (gray). The horizontal dotted lines   correspond to the average temperature range over the industrial age.   

During the first 2000 years of the Holocene epoch the temperature passed from -48C° to -32C° and afterwards it has remained into the range -32C° : -28.7C°. The minimum value of the industrial age (-32C°) measured at the end of the Little Ice Age, lines up with the absolute minimum of the period up to 10000 years before present. Neither the current maximum temperature of -29.25C° can be considered abnormal ! In fact, similar values are likely to have occurred 2070 years ago [Julius Caesar conquered Lusitania for the glory of Rome, in Syria the Seluecid empire came to an end, in China the Han dynasty kept the control of the Western Regions], 3200 years ago [collapse of the Hittite empire], and so on... We can also observe relative long intervals where the temperature remained above the present upper limit [from 3320 to 3200, from 6990 to 6800, from 7980 to 7690 years before present]. 

Let's now analyze the interval of the last 10000 years before present.
The time series of the air temperature in that period results nonstationary with mean -30.61C° and standard deviation 0.7574. 

Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) is a method for determining self-similarity of nonstationary time series. DFA is able to reveal the extent of the long range temporal correlation (LRTC) in time series [9]. 

Specifically, if a time series has a non-random temporal structure with slowly decaying autocorrelations, DFA measures the decaying time by estimating an opportune power law exponent alpha. The correspondence between the autocorrelation structure and the exponent alpha is usually defined as follows: 

Uncorrelated sequence                                        alpha~0.5

Anti-correlated sequence                                 0<alpha<0.5

Long range temporal correlation                     0.5<alpha<1

Strong correlation but not from a power law           alpha>1

DFA applied to the 10000 years data series, returns a coefficient alpha = 0.6769 therefore we may assume the presence of LRTC. 

That is, the system is "self-organizing" and so, except for some fairly slow stochastic drive, most of the fluctuations are endogenous rather than being determined by strong external causes.

Hence, even though in the very last decades the carbon dioxide emissions have grown at exponential rate (Figure 8), the DFA result softens the alleged direct effects of CO2 pollution on the variations of the air temperature. 

Figure 8. Antarctica Atmospheric CO2 (Holocene Epoch)

The unprecedent abrupt shift of the atmospheric CO2 then is not reflected (directly or entirely) in the variation of the air temperature (Figures 9-11)

Figure 9. Air Temperature at the Greenland Summit vs. Antarctica Atmospheric CO2 (Age before present: from -10000 to 0): standardized data.

The plot of the standardized values of temperature (C°) and carbon dioxide concentration (ppm) reveals the huge departure of the two time series starting from the last recent decades. Unlike the visualisation of Figure 4, the analysis in the long run provides a different perspective in the relationship between CO2 level and temperature as represented also in Figure 10. The present deviation of the temperature from its 10000 years' mean is within a normal range therefore its increase in the last centuries would not be explained by the anomalies of the CO2 emission over the industrial age.

Figure 10. Air temperature variations vs. CO2 variations: Bland-Altman plot (Holocene Epoch)

 

The difference-mean plot of Figure 10 shows a clear downward trend in the data. All the anomalies are counted since the year 1880 and they all fall in the negative sector, i.e., the growth of the CO2 concentration over the last 130 years goes beyond the variation of the temperature at an abnormal rate. We can observe that the rate of change of the anomalous differences has increased since the last three decades. To spotlight this "acceleration" we measure the (euclidean) distance between the successive outliers of Figure 10 which is reported in the ordinate axis of Figure 11. In the abscissa there are the corresponding years before present. 

Figure 11. Anomalies in differences between temperature and CO2 emission in the last 130 years. 

The dynamics of the anomalous differences observed in the last 130 years resulted uniform until 30 years ago. The next sudden jumps in the pattern of the anomalies are ascribable to the abnormal increases of the CO2 values.  


3. CONCLUSIONS

The assessments on climate variations seem to depend on the extent of the temporal window to which we refer. The question is whether the anomalies recorded over periods of few decades or few centuries, may enable us to infer structural change in climate.  
Long term analysis sheds light on some topics: 

• The current global temperature is not the absolute maximum looking back in past. Similar or greater values would have occurred also during the not industrialized epochs.  
• The control of the CO2 emission, specifically the limitation of the fossil fuel in the human activities is a positive measure for the enviromental sake. But if the purpose of cutting the CO2 emission is to stop the global warming, then we should expect to miss the target. 
• Maybe, it is someway comforting the idea that we can "switch" off the global temperature by modulating the fossil fuel consumption. This anthropocentric perspective may deceive our decisions, because we can not rule the climate, but only adapt to it. Therefore, if we have deteriorated the climate equilibrium, then because of the chaotic dynamics of the system we can not go back and correct mistakes. In that case we will pay the consequences. 
•  Moreover, the relationship between CO2 and air temperature is not so direct as we could imagine. Anyway, if we are nearby (if not we have already gone beyond) a tipping point, then even large reductions in the CO2 emission might not suffice for recovering climate equilibrium. 
• According to the studies [10-11] of the russian physicist H. Abdussamatof reported in a previous post [here], there is the possibility that we are going to face a period of global cooling, because the Sun is entering a phase of Grande Minimum of its irradiation activities. This counter-current hypothesis is worth to be investigated further.

GLOBAL WARMING: THE 21ST CENTURY RELIGION!

"When people stop believing in  orthodox religion, rather than believe in nothing, they believe in anything!"  

[Gilbert Keith Chesterton, 1874 - 1936]

Reading in the huffingtonpost [here] the note of Peter Lilley on the climate change issue  it becomes plain how deceiving is the uncritical faith in the Global Warming. 

"One of the ersatz religions which fills the void in recent years is belief in Catastrophic Man-Made Global Warming. It claims to be based on science. But it has all the characteristics of an eschatological cult" [Peter Lilley]

Neither statistical evidence nor the social-economic consequences of their model seem to move the global-warming followers from their theoretical assumption based on the direct relationship of the increase of the global temperature to the raise of carbon dioxide emission.

But gradually some criticism on this position begin to make inroads. 

     Sir Francis Bacon (1561 – 1626)

« In rebus quibuscumque difficilioribus non expectandum, ut quis simul, et serat, et metat, sed praeparatione opus est, ut per gradus maturescant. »	« In all things, and especially in the most difficult, we should not expect to sow and reap the same time, but you need a slow preparation, so that they gradually mature.»
(from:  Sermones Fideles sive Interiora Rerum, n. XLV)

New research suggests Earth may warm more slowly as reported by Alex Kirby in the Scientific American [here], whilst in a recently published works [1 and  2], the russian physicist H.I. Abdussamatov [Pulkovo Observatory, St. Petersburg, Russia] has presented the results of studies in the variation of the energy solar radiation absorbed by the Earth. 

According to the scientist the origin of climate change is that the Sun is entering a phase of Grande Minimum of its activities irradiation. 

"From early 90s we observe bicentennial decrease in both the TSI and the portion of its energy absorbed by the Earth. The Earth as a planet will henceforward have negative balance in the energy budget which will result in the temperature drop in approximately 2014. Due to increase of albedo and decrease of the greenhouse gases atmospheric concentration the absorbed portion of solar energy and the influence of the greenhouse effect will additionally decline. The influence of the consecutive chain of feedback effects which can lead to additional drop of temperature will surpass the influence of the TSI decrease. The onset of the deep bicentennial minimum of TSI is expected in 2042±11, that of the 19th Little Ice Age in the past 7500 years – in 2055±11."
[H.I.Abdussamatov] 

One caveat that should be taken seriously by the leaders, given the situation of energy deficit in which populist and short-sighted policies have stuck many countries.