DECISION MAKING PROCESS: COMPONENTS AND TIME EFFECT

We have seen [here] that the decision making activates a circuit, where the evaluation of the alternative solutions to a given problem and the choice of the best one would give rise to a learning mechanism for error reduction.  

Now let's talk about the main components which influence the decision making (see Figure 1).

We can consider the combination of three factors over the decision making process:

1. the decision environment;
2. the quantity of information;
3. the decision stream.

Figure 1. The components of decision making and the role of the time

Decision making is a process which requires the definition of the informative set (environment) by which select and implement the best solution to a given problem. During the decisional process the quantity of information is cumulated until a certain time (t') beyond which the gathering of more information overload the decision maker. That is, the quantity of the "effective" information does not grow indefinitely, but will decrease from a certain time on. The existence of a time contraint enables the decision maker to get a decision. Decisions may have effect not only at the time when  they have been taken, but also may enter successive decisional processes, i.e., they may feed the decision environment of the same decision maker (or of other decision makers when we consider the social dynamics) in successive times. This flow of information forms the decision stream.    

1. THE DECISION ENVIRONMENT AND THE TIMED   PERFORMANCE

The set of all the information, alternatives, values, and preferences available at the time of the decision forms the so called decision environment.

How should be the "ideal" decision environment ? Well, it would call for all the possible complete and exact information, and every possible alternative should be envisaged !

But the collection of all the information and the identification and evaluation of all the alternatives is "time-consuming" and the time constitutes a bound on the setting of the decisional environment. That is, the time limit produces the break of the learning mechanism involved in the decisional circuit so as to get a decision. On the contrary, an unconstrained decisional time is biologically non plausible since any decision taken at time T+1 would be better (i.e., supported by more information) than a decision at time T. Therefore, it is unlikely that one gets the whole information for making a decision with certainty, so most decisions are taken at the cost of some level of risk. 

According to this scenario we may consider the decision making process as a timed performance framework conditional to the duration of the various options, the duration of the expected delays for receiving the options, and the time constraints for making a choice. [1]

The existence of a time constraint and the perception of the time as a short supplied resource raise the problem of the efficient allocation of time for getting the "right" decision. This results in a typical speed-and-accuracy tradeoff [see here] that the decision makers take on adaptively [2,3]. 

2. THE QUANTITY OF INFORMATION

Delaying a decision as long as possible may return some positive effects:

• it allows the accrual of more information (extension of the decision environment);
• the accuracy of the decisions ("good choices") would be improved;
• new alternatives might be identified (or created). 
• it allows the decision maker to change the rank of the alternatives. 

Conversely, postponing the decision is expected to cause some problems: 

• a too long delay may unbalance the speed-and-accuracy tradeoff and, hence, impair the effectiveness of the decision.
• Gathering more and more information causes information overload: there exists a saturation point in the capability of managing effectively all the information. Thus, the relation between capacity of storing and of managing information is inverse. The state of information overload also involves that the curve of the effective information with respect to the time of accrual, i.e., the quantity of information which can be really exploited in the decision making process, does not grow monotonically but begins to decrease after the saturation point (say, the point t' in Figure 1). Consequently, some of the information would be discarded.
• Too long delayed decisions may strain the decision maker. This would cause a worsening of the ability of taking "good" decisions (accuracy) and/or a selection bias of the information towards non optimal alternative solutions. 

3. DECISION STREAMS

Network of decisions and meta-decision 

"Time is an ever present and prominent dimension in all human decision making. Decisions are oriented towards future time, they take time to make, their consequences develop over time and they are sometimes thought about for a long time afterwards." [4]

Decisions form a network whence the decision makers draw information for proceeding their decisional processes. Actually, decisions may have effect not only at the time when  they have been taken, but also may enter successive decisional processes, i.e., they may feed the decision environment of the same decision maker or of other decision makers when we consider the social dynamics [see also herding behavior] in successive times. This flow of information forms the decision stream.   
Once again, we can note the relationship between time and decision making. Decision streams would give rise to meta-decisions which are decisions we make about decision making: "when should this decision be made?", "how long this decision take?", "how much time have decisions like this one taken in the past?",... [3,5]
In other terms, decisions are made in a context (network) of other decisions, such that each decision may be supported by the decision stream formed in other times and/or by other subjects (sharing experience). 
The main advantage of this stream of decisions is that by providing the decision maker with a "template", it speeds up the choice towards proved rewarding solutions [see here]. 

1. W.H. Meck, V. Doyèr, A. Gruart, (2012). Interval timing and time-based decision making. Front.Integr.Neurosci. 13:6.
2. J.W. Payne, J.R. Bettman, E.J. Johnson, (1993). The adaptive decision maker. Cambridge University Press, New York.
3. D. Ariely, D. Zakay, (2001). a timely account of the role of duration in decision making. Acta Psychologica 108: 187-207.
4. R. Ranyard, W.R. Crozier, O. Svenson (Eds.). Decision making: cognitive models and explanations. Routledge, London, (1997). 
5. J.E. Russo, J.H. Schoemaker, (1989). Decision traps. Simon&Schuster, New York.

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